tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85299045044139688102024-02-20T07:59:09.448-08:00Middle East News For The PerplexedBlog http://newsperplexed.comdubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-25187020683610815972017-09-04T19:07:00.000-07:002017-09-04T20:39:30.446-07:00The house of Salmon has changed the ME foreverIf the house of Saud can be described as a set of patient and plodding foreign policies, willing to spend their money and other peoples lives on radical adventures but also willing to spend money, diplomacy and prestige on creating stability in a tumultuous region then the Salmon monarchy is taking a different direction. During the cold war, the Saudis would side with the US, after the fall of Iran the Saudis stepped up their counterreformation by increasing the export of Sunni radicalism which included helping the US route the Soviets in Afghanistan. Yet, the Saudis also found it necessary and important to support the stability of the primarily Sunni government in Lebanon, to keep Iraq as a protector against Iran and essentially finding ways to keep the overall political order no matter which parts of the Middle East fell apart that year.<br />
<br />
The House of Salman hasn't been so patient nor so willing to the throw good money after bad. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia is waging a seemingly fruitless war to the keep the Iranian backed Houthis out of the Arabian peninsula but may effectively have driven Yemen's Shias further into Persian arms. Salman is leading a diplomatic embargo against Qatar and has inadvertently had Turkey, the old colonizer, step up fleshing out a military base in Qatar at time when Turkey is ruled by a Neo Ottoman president who waxes nostalgic for the old Empire. The most most interesting and most cataclysmic yet subtle change was in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia more or less cut off support for the Sunni faction in Lebanon after the Lebanese government shut down for over a year because Hezbollah could veto any government it didn't like. This led to the installation of a Christian President, Michael Aoun who is little more than a quisling to Iran's interests. During this period, Hezbollah invaded another country besides Israel but did so with a new army rather than just terrorist forces. While Hezbollah is an ally of the Syrian government, the Lebanese government is not. Hostile, pro-Iranian and Iranian forces in Syria and Lebanon put Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia in play as potential hot spots. There was a time when Saudi Arabia would have continued to support the Sunnis in Lebanon no matter the problem since it only required colored paper, the Salmon regime seems to question the value of such expenditures and does not seem to be willing to settle for being reactionary.<br />
<br />
With an expansionist Iran, the recent memory of the Arab Spring, ISIS and the increasing inability to avoid radical violence by exporting it -- Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salmon is willing the take risks as he sees Saudi Arabia's security being whittled away by new radicalisms and Iran's increasing ability to project force. However, the crown less able to wield peace. They have so far alternatively lukewarm and cold with Egypt, supporting its economy and then reducing funding when it doesn't get what it wants. There's little sense of genuine unity in either OPEC or the GCC council which is taking a stand against Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood, the Arab Spring and Iran. Behind the scenes contracts with Israel have happened and there are signals that Saudi Arabia could be more flexible and realistic about the Israeli-Palestinian peace as well as accepting Israel diplomatically but not observable progress has been seen either in the region or on the PA government. The Salmon government is more of a Freshman than Senior government and their policies and actions may need time to play out which includes domestic restructuring of their economy. The question remains, how effective will Saudi Arabia be in rallying support against Iran, increasing regional stability, developing long term alliances and waging peace.dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-11591918691731724342016-12-11T19:41:00.003-08:002016-12-11T19:41:40.581-08:00It's been just over a year...I've personally had an interesting year personally and I had to give up the blog suddenly and for a long time. I am now able to devote time to blogging again so I'll soon be discussing the year's most under discussed story! While I have not been blogging, <a href="https://flipboard.com/@marcdubey/middle-east-news-for-the-perplexed-2on7hdlnz" target="_blank">Middle East News for the Perplexed </a>on clipboard has been going strong. I'll announce a resuscitation for the news perplexed.com beta site soon, probably just into the New Year. happy office parties and holidays!dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-7317867961359946202015-11-26T08:26:00.003-08:002015-11-26T23:45:23.157-08:00Turkey-Russia Spat: What goes around....<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://lionsgroundnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Vladimir-Putin-Tayyip-Erdogan-363478.jpg?03f099" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://lionsgroundnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Vladimir-Putin-Tayyip-Erdogan-363478.jpg?03f099" height="269" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Erdogan said everyone should respect the right of Turkey to
defend its borders while Putin demands an apology and compensation from Turkey
because Turkey exercised its right to defend its borders by shooting down a Russian Fighter crossing into or threatening to cross into Turkish territory as Russian support for the Syrian terror
regime. Since this was a clear case of violating the borders of a democracy, in this case Turkey's democracy, in support of terrorism -- President Erdogan has put into place a set of morals and protocols to guide Turkey properly. It is clear, based on Erdogan's own support of terrorism that Turkey must pay for downed fighter Jet and compensate the family of the Russian pilots because that is what Erdogan’s
twisted morality and therefore Turkey’s twisted morality demands. <br />
<br />
Just five years ago, Turkey in support
of Hamas’ terrorism against Israeli civilians sent the Mavi Mamara as part of a
fleet of ships with the mission to violate Israeli territorial waters and the legal
blockage of Gaza, this ship had IHH terrorists embedded with civilians who
planned and committed violence against Israel. While Israel’s handing of the Mavi Mamara was by all accounts
a disaster, then Prime Minister Erdogan’s pro-terrorist attitude took a disaster and turned into a sign that NATO would not be able to fight terrorism, a problem if Turkey could not decide terrorism is a bad thing, a problem NATO continues not to face to this day. The
government of Turkey supports the violation of borders in support of terrorism,
it demands that terror supporters be paid for any injury, thus the government of
Turkey should not now do anything less pay Putin his blood money and offer a sincere apology. Russia
supports the terrorist regimes of Iran and Syria just as Turkey supports Hamas
but Russia unlike Turkey did not endanger civilians in its support of terrorism
or pretend they were not involved in their support at a governmental level. In fact, I recommend
that Turkey use the compensation that Israel paid to Turkey to pay off Russia. Once day, the Russian can give it to the Chechen rebels. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-90545945282000636202015-11-25T10:10:00.003-08:002015-11-26T07:52:16.882-08:00Dead ISIS Girls<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/12/18/242581F300000578-0-image-a-70_1418921218263.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/12/18/242581F300000578-0-image-a-70_1418921218263.jpg" height="192" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Samra Kesinovic, 16, and
Sabina Selimovic, 15 were picked up by a whirlwind and deposited in the
Islamic State by following a road they may have thought was paved with good
intentions. In war, the primary
sacrifice is of one’s body and these two teenagers, as potential breeders, were
married off to “fighters” and likely to suicide bombers as those fighter’s
personal wife-whores and sometimes as fighters. According to the NY Daily News, “Girls are increasingly
being used in the fighting because of a belief that anybody killed by a female
would never go to heaven.” According to an unidentified Tunisian women who
claims to have lived with both girls, Samra Kesinovic was beaten to death
trying to escape ISIS while Sabina was killed in fighting -- which presumes Sabina wasn’t a great breeder. These girls were
manipulated by ISIS propaganda, they were young, to some extent disaffected by
Austrian society and did not think enough of themselves to protect themselves
from the phalluses and fallacies of evil men. I can’t help but assign most of the blame to
them. Yeats wrote in Easter 1919 of a mourning over an Irish uprising that would presage modern terrorism:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
"Transformed utterly: <br />
A terrible beauty is born.”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
And such was the transformation of these two girls, there was apparently a
Yugoslavian recruiter to blame, the ISIS propaganda machine which they would
eventually work for as well but ultimately these two girls chose to join the
fight in a terror organization which actively engaged in ethnic cleansing, rape
and genocide. I feel sorry for them but their parents more because I understand how a sixteen or seventeen year old could be misguided,
might be interested in G-d approved sexed with the bad boys of war and desire to outdo their
parents in their ethnocentrism and religiosity, to take an easy way out to feeling important -- these can be attractive siren calls but the girls were no idiots. They planned their escape from Austria to
Turkey, made propaganda, directly helped murder people at least in the case of
Sabina and ultimately paid the price for their brutal ideals by their lives
ending brutally. It’s tragic for kids to die at 17 and 16, a mere year later
after running away from their homes but I also think of them as newly minted Nazis
from Austria who lived two years too long. How many other children and innocent
civilians might live if these girls died on their way to Turkey or before could
have left? I would wish some other intervention, something that could rescue
their minds from supporting intolerance and genocide but they could choose and
they chose, Yeats' words are far darker now than they were a century ago as we now see what terrorism really is,“We know their dream; Enough to know they dreamed and are dead” and
their dreams bewilder in their mixture and teen angst and murderousness. I am
glad that ISIS eats its own, these cute little girls earned their ignoble and
savage deaths but they could have been more, they had every chance to have
better dreams and there is tragedy for their loss of potential. </div>
<o:p></o:p>dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-85019940114989426992015-11-18T07:39:00.002-08:002015-11-18T07:39:33.721-08:00We can get this Syrian refugee situation right<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.trbimg.com/img-564b7d5c/turbine/ct-gov-rauner-should-learn-his-place-20151117/750/750x422" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.trbimg.com/img-564b7d5c/turbine/ct-gov-rauner-should-learn-his-place-20151117/750/750x422" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Gov. Bruce Rauner made a reasonable decision in attempting to temporarily halt Syrian refugees’ entrance. Illinois, in cooperation with the federal government, should review how refugees are selected. Refugees who come to America have been referred by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees before coming here and are far less likely to be terrorists.<br />
<br />
What Illinois and the U.S. need to do is review our screening procedures and be able to reasonably increase scrutiny of those refugees we might decide we have concerns about. America is no Europe, where Muslims often live in suburban “ghettos,” but we would be naive to think the extreme radicalization we see in other parts of the world could not happen here. Illinois should do everything in its collective power to avoid xenophobia. Let us make certain we are adequately processing refugees from Iraq and Syria, screening out the likely terrorists and, just as important, taking advantage of any clandestine intelligence opportunities that may arise.<br />
<br />
The reason why there are so many refugees is due to the barbarity and evil of our enemies. Let’s make sure we are fighting them and not innocent civilians. President Barack Obama was correct when he said, “slamming the door in their faces would be a betrayal of our values.” Let’s make certain we are neither prejudiced nor too credulous in how we choose which refugees to accept.<br />
<br />
Originally published in print on 11/18/2015 <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/letters/ct-we-can-get-this-syrian-refugee-situation-right-20151117-story.html" target="_blank">Chicago Tribune</a> as "Being Reasonable."dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-49010873190685573672015-11-15T09:56:00.000-08:002015-11-15T10:02:07.059-08:00What terrorists mean when they condemn terror<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHnwtOFC6LK3mdAwr1R3BMdLcNo5z_LCJeNpEBcfiSLjNTih_0Z9Yejb-WHcOcblAcoD4U8WXcob_9P9cPiENj85yoR5c52maKSVUeNPS3SPqgwtzz7Oz6rSLHVddvuIRhV8NG2tq1eGse/s1600/TheExMen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="105" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHnwtOFC6LK3mdAwr1R3BMdLcNo5z_LCJeNpEBcfiSLjNTih_0Z9Yejb-WHcOcblAcoD4U8WXcob_9P9cPiENj85yoR5c52maKSVUeNPS3SPqgwtzz7Oz6rSLHVddvuIRhV8NG2tq1eGse/s320/TheExMen.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bashar Assad, Ayatollah Khamenei, Khaled Mashal, Hassan
Nasrallah and the dread Dormamu, the leaders of Syria, Iran, Hamas,
Hezbollah and Dark Dimension all agree that they should condemn the attack on Paris and there are some very good reasons for this. All of these
leaders have cults of personality that can get away with treating their
followers as mindless ones who murder innocents on command but that magic requires their hordes of dolts to believe
they are exclusively on the side of “good.”
Condemning the obvious but very similar evil of others simply makes it easier for these hoary
hordes of haggoth to enjoy the truthiness of their comparative moral
superiority through the magical joys and wonders of hypocrisy. These wizards of woe cannot turn lead into gold but they carefully turn cold blooded murder into saintliness all the time. Cynical condemnations such as the the condemnations of the Paris attacks simply provide rhetorical
cover. These people just want to kill Jews and politicla opponents, so condemning the deaths of
non Jews suggests they have such a sophisticated moral point of view that we
ought not to question it. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Nasrallah, who fires and supplies rockets to be fired on Israeli civilians said, "People of the region of Arab and Islamic countries who are living under the brutality of ISIS, including Lebanon which suffered a few days ago from it, are the most aware and sympathetic of what hit the French nation last night,"</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With a flawless Jazz-like performance, President Assad riffed on Netanyahu's statements to CNN when Saddam Hussein was reigning missiles down on Israel and said, "France experienced what Syrians live" which is so ironic since Syria has turned its entire terror arsenal on its civilian population. If the government of France and ISIS simultaneously attacked civilian population, only then would the French know what it is to be Syrian. Assad then got to his real point, the point that has kept retaliation against Syrian terrorism out of Syria proper, for decades. "The flawed policies pursued by Western countries and especially France as regards what is happening in our region ... contributed to the spread of terrorism..." The world will be worse without the Assad terror regime, you need us to kill civilians in the Middle East so that innocent civilians do not die in Europe. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Eventually, if it has not already happened the Orb Agamotto tells me Jews and
Israelis will be accused of a false flag operation by these same leaders.
Underneath their cynicism and manipulations lies an important and sincere
message which should not be overlooked; <i>Please don’t fight all the terrorists, just the other guys! </i><o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-44948699846226541612015-11-15T08:01:00.002-08:002015-11-15T08:05:00.667-08:00Paris & the ISIS Razzle Dazzle<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1692699/awful_cowboys_1_medium.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1692699/awful_cowboys_1_medium.gif" height="188" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The latest attacks in Paris took place in a trendy part of town
near the offices of Charlie Hebdo where Al Qaeda had attacked and while the “soft
targets” were more in the style of ISIS but the multiple attacks and locations
suggest the attackers had logistical support of some kind from Al Qaeda. ISIS
needs all the help it can get. This
assist might have been simply personal that switched organizations or somehow
work for both or higher levels of agreement could have been reached between the
increasingly marginalized Al Qaeda organization the increasingly bruised
Caliphate -- perhaps they cooperated because they both needed to make a big
kill to impress their world. Al Qaeda needs breathing room and it believes
attacking the West at home will make us pull out of the Middle East where they
can fester freely despite the opposite that terror draws an attack always being
true and a more logical expectation. ISIS is chopping off the heads of
defectors rather than gaining camaraderie and more importantly the so called
caliphate itself is shrinking and slowly being bisected by Kurdish forces and
the American air force while also facing a Russian, Iranian and Syrian terror
alliance.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;">The attack on Paris strikes is a desperate play, no matter how much planning went into it. ISIS is losing yards so it tries to kick a field goal. The West has known for decades that we needed to get rid of the Assad regime and anything that replaced it would be worse and we are seeing even worse consequences than we had imagined because we did nothing but wait for the region to become unstable. Additionally, NATO is the wrong alliance to deal with these problems, we need a new series partnerships to take the lead that include regional actors. ISIS attacked France not because it had anything to gain but because it is losing. Despite all of our mess-ups, ISIS is losing the war. They attacked soft targets in France to fool themselves into thinking they could find victory and to con us into being intimidated, into believing they are winning. While ISIS tactics were surprisingly effective, they are in trouble, all that has been accomplished by ISIS is the West is now only more determined to make them lose faster. </span></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-15762131155894891282015-11-14T08:14:00.003-08:002015-11-14T08:14:57.503-08:00Meditations in States of Emergency like France<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://media.salon.com/2015/01/Screen-Shot-2015-01-07-at-10.56.16-AM-1280x803.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://media.salon.com/2015/01/Screen-Shot-2015-01-07-at-10.56.16-AM-1280x803.png" height="200" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Paris has had what will likely be the worst acts of terror
on Paris since the occupation. My heart and grief go out to the French people,
who do not deserve this. The Middle East is a burning building. Put out the
fire of regional turmoil and the smoke of terrorism in Europe and America will
slowdown and cease rather than see the fire spread here, as firemen we have to
stop treating the present map of the Middle East as though it were a building
worth saving. The fire has burned too long, spread too easily and the building
was too poorly made to be saved. The West needs to rethink its strategy in the
Middle East. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
France has long anticipated these kinds of attacks, the
Charlie Hebdo massacre was a prologue but terrorism has been coming out of the
Middle East since the 1960s. Europe and America has an unfortunate history of
not recognizing the evil of terror whether it is Iran, Hezbollah, the PLO,
Black September, the PKK, Baathist Iraq, Hamas and Iran and we treat these
organizations like they are reasonable. They are not, they seek political
profit at the maximal cost of civilian lives which is only reasonable to the
David Koreshes and Charlie Mansons of the world. Terror organizations “profit”
in their way from being unreasonable. What happens in Paris will happen in Berlin,
in New York, in Washington and in LA and it will happen for the same reasons; the
West has been outsmarting itself by seeking a series of political solutions to
military and police problems. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
US and European foreign policy must recognize there is no
point in differentiating between international and domestic security
philosophically. We no longer live in a world where we can ignore a genocide or
just stand to the side and boo one, we cannot tolerate sustained instability
anywhere. What happens in Kabul, Waziristan, and especially Iran and Syria is
very relevant to Paris and Washington. France and the EU will have to further
increase their security but this is only a costly and temporary solution with
diminishing returns. There will always be exploitable gaps in security, this
Maginot line cannot be hermetically sealed or made qualitatively better; the
West can only try to keep up with the times.
The real ICBMS in the Middle East travel by foot and bear arms, if we do
nothing different then real missiles will come later. The civilized world is
looking at decades to repair the Middle East but we do not have to be its
victim or its colonizer yet we are in a state of war that we did not ask for. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Europe and its allies must stop thinking about security in
post second world war terms. Stop trying to solve the riddle of religious
extremism and fanatical nationalism as though every crazy problem can be solved
with diplomatic therapy and instead work towards resolution – resolutions unlike
solutions don’t have to make everyone happy or be reactionary in preserving the
status quo. Syria has been a hot bed of terror for decades, a peaceful Syria
will have different borders and different rulers. Iran must be contained, Iraq like
Syria will likely break up. Yemen may deserve a political solution after the
Houthis declare a ceasefire. Gaza is in an unacceptable state not because of
the blockade but because Hamas remains in power and it must reform or go. The
Arab Spring was about democracy, accountability and personal freedom and most
people got Islamism instead and in the case of Egypt this was followed by renewed
strongman rule. That means we may not be
popular or a perfect model of how Middle Easterners should self-govern but we
are not ideological aliens. The West should support constitutionalism and independent
judiciaries and then human rights as training wheels for democracy but in the meantime
NATO is not competent to manage American and European interests in the Middle
East. For example, NATO member Turkey is a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood
and Hamas and has been accused of being a supporter of the Islamic State until recently
and can be easily be seen as sympathetic to Sunni terror and this compromises a
NATO deeply concerned by Islamic radicalism. But NATO wants Turkish Airbases
and chooses to ignore the obvious logistical and security problems. Unless the
current government completely repudiates supporting terrorism, and follows
through with policy changes, we must be careful of working too closely with Ankara
which is far from seeing NATO’s security or regional stability as being in its
interests. For Erdogan’s Turkey, NATO is just a stepping stone to becoming a greater
regional power based on the idea that the Middle East and Turkey will be
improved if Turkey is the hegemon. There is no reason for the west to support
going backward a century in the Middle East. NATO is also unable to expand membership
to other states in the Middle East because a European and American organization
of democracies founded on European security is not compatible with the Middle
East nations that are not democratic republics. We need an alliance that can embrace more
parties and more kinds of parties in the region and turn out those nations that
fail us in way that NATO cannot. We need
a security organization that can choose to have direct ties to a tribe if that
is what is needed. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Fortunately, Most of the Gulf and the Levant may be ready to
form such an alliance, even with Israel due the tremendous instability caused by
Al Qaeda, ISIS and Iran. Such an alliance
with a genuine anti-Islamic terror philosophy which has no tolerance for
international terror must be translated into practical policy but may also be
easily embraced by religiously conservative nations and people who want to
differentiate themselves from odium of Islamic terrorism. We need a new
alliance of Middle Eastern Nations, Europe and America composed minimally of
France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and conditionally Iraq,
the Kurds and Turkey. There might even
be room for Russia should it abandon Iran. This security organization must be
very clear that the PKK and similar organizations must renounce attacks on
civilians, Turkey must renounce support for all terror organizations and if it
does not than this new organization bases in Greece, Israel and Kurdish and
possibly Gulf and Jordanian areas. Provided the Kurds agree to be pro-western,
democratic, anti-terror and flexible regarding borders with Turkey. Turkey will
need to recognize the right of Kurds to a nation with Turkey and Kurdistan
coming to an agreement on borders and rights of ethnic Kurds. If
Turkey fails either to be anti-terror or pro-Kurdish then Turkey is out at
least until Turkey elects a responsible, pro-western government. Similarly if
the PKK remains a terror organization then Turkey need not recognize any
Kurdistan and the alliance’s work with various Kurdish militias may need to be
short term and to the exclusion of the PKK. Developing flexible relationships that do not
overly compromise is not only possible but will be far more effective than
applying a European security organization outside of Europe. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Egypt must be supported at the expense of the Muslim
Brotherhood, Hamas and Hezbollah and all must be given the opportunity to
renounce terrorism and must agree not to attack our allies and if they fail
then they become potential targets of the alliance and their calls for
political power and autonomy go unrecognized and seen as illegitimate. Lebanese inclusion in this treaty will depend
on Hezbollah’s status but the treaty must be as anti-Iran as it is anti-ISIS --
even if we need only contain and constrain Iran. I suggest building on history and
call this alliance MEATO as it will be more comprehensive than METO was. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The PLO and PA will be given the opportunity to renounce
terror, renounce “the right of return” and renounce claims on Jerusalem, accept
Ramallah as their capital and recognize Israeli cities in Judea and Samaria in
exchange for a recognized, viable and internationally Palestinian supported
state. Should they not agree then Israel should be pressured to declare
unilateral borders it can live based on having a hostile neighbor but in
consultation with Europe and the UN who will serve as advisors and vote getters
for a UN vote of recognition. Then a Palestinian state or two states will be
recognized in what is left over. Either
way, a separate organization will be created that is regionally and
internationally funded to handle claims of lost property for Jews and Arabs
from the Israeli – Arab conflicts and that will end the conflict as we know it.
Obviously this is a big reversal for
Europe and Muslims states to embrace but frankly the hour is well past when
Europeans at least should have evolved on this issue. If the Palestinians want
to be Palestinians and have a state called Palestine there are viable options
and if the world can’t make them go that route then it is time their ambitions
are routed as the Palestinian cause cannot trump the need for regional security
and cooperation. That conflict is far less important than it used to be as the
Middle East now faces real regional problems than the mere luxury of Arabs claiming
a version of Manifest Destiny in the name of Pan-Arabism at Israel’s expense. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Real challenges are going to be Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria
and possibly Egypt. Additionally, Afghanistan and Pakistan may erupt as well as
parts of Africa but creating stability in the Middle East will ease a lot of other
burdens. Unpacking and Iraq and Syria into political entities with a path for
political, cultural and economic stability is the goal of a new alliance. The Middle
East needs Europe and America to lend military and diplomatic force while
remaining honest brokers towards a series of political solutions that result
from liberty created by military intervention against terror organizations that
are arrived at in partnership with regional governments when possible and/or
tribes and ethno-religious groups. The emergence of cooperation with smaller
sub groups will help the Europe and the UN deal with similar problems in South
Asia and Central Asia, particularly in the Waziristan province of Pakistan. The
difference between this and the Bush invasion of Iraq will be the emphasis on openness,
regional cooperation, thoughtful planning and competent leadership. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The job of this security organization will be to secure the
borders of ME states in the organization by stable entities within failed and
terror states which will in turn reduce the ability of terror organizations to
harm Europe and America. Such a resolution may require redrawing the map for
some states in the region who may then join our alliance. In some cases,
security and eventual tranquility may require invasions of terrorist strangleholds,
or a cold war like containment policy for other places like Iran but the point
is Western and Middle Eastern forces will work together to militarily defeat
regional terror organizations, create sustainable states, especially of
Kurdistan which will help buffer the Gulf and Central Asia against unstable
areas but also to create tranquility in places such as Gaza and Yemen. In
contrast to the post world war one period, there are now states and groups that
can develop realistic solutions to their own problems supported by a world
community that respects and find assistance to be in their own best interest. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
For too long the world has been too reactionary with the Middle
East, wanting all problems to be solved without anything changing. A few all out Middle Eastern Wars, 9/11, the
Madrid Train Bombing, 7/7 (London bombings), Mumbai attacks, Charlie Hebdo and
now Paris tell us we must be more invasive at least in the Middle East before Europe and America face full blown guerilla
wars domestically. Conflict at home is the state of emergency that is slowly
emerging from successes like the attack on Paris, where we will probably find
that ISIS has cooperation in sourcing targets from domestic terror groups or
with French citizens who are members of ISIS as the attacks show an intimate
knowledge of France, are part of a larger continuity of local insurgency. So far, Western involvement in the Middle East
since the end of the cold war has been accidental, reactionary and often working
against our own security. It is past time to revise our strategy and to accept
the work before us. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-26807092025475271582015-11-03T06:45:00.001-08:002015-11-03T06:45:42.164-08:00Turkey, ya can’t rig an election ya didn’t win!<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/140330204412-erdogan-election-turkey-story-top.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/140330204412-erdogan-election-turkey-story-top.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;">I’m proudly from Chicago, a one party government disguised as
a democracy and I am proud to see that Turkey joined our club. I congratulate
President Erdogan on his stunning victory, people may decide there were voting
irregularities, rigging, fake votes and all of that is as true as it is
unimportant; Chicago knows a deeper truth, ‘ya can’t rig an election ya didn’t
win.’ Supposedly the AKP gained 5 million votes in five months by not allowing
a coalition government to form, cracking down on journalism, two major
terrorist bombings amid rumors of false flag operations, dragging Turkey into
what will become a civil war while the economy is declining and only not
collapsing based on US interest rates remaining flat. Every poll in Turkey from
June through October showed the AKP in steady decline losing between 8 and 9
points just before the election with all other parties gaining a couple of
points. Anyone can see Turkey won those votes, they just not win them from
actual voters there’s no reason to complain. The more important truth is the
AKP did not lose a lot of votes in consideration of its behavior, they won
enough to be a majority party but the margins were adjusted to keep Turkish a
one party state. There was not enough opposition to make ridiculous AKP
manipulations of the election.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><span class="apple-converted-space"><br /></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
With deep pride, I
will explain to my new political brothers how pseudo democracy works,
there’s a lot of bribing involved but corruption will be regulated because only
pro AKP people will be allowed to give and accept bribes while everyone else
risks jail. Newbies at “machine politics” as we call it in the windy city, may
ask, why have elections at all, or just have really fake elections like they
did in the Soviet Union or like they do in Iran and North Korea? The answer is
in a Chicago Style pseudo democracy, the corruption of one partly rule only forms
a tall and thick crust around the people but people can change the balance of
ingredients on top of that pie, which is then sauced in reform political
slogans, then local political aspirations are then cooked in the fat of the
political cheese underneath. Pseudo democracy will not tolerate an anti-corruption
campaign against the AK party but low voter turnout or an increase in the opposition
could force the AKP to form a commission that will crack down on other parties
while demanding of themselves lower bribes, delicious! So the people form an advisory role in a
pseudo democracy where the party best determines what it can get away with,
kicking out and arresting the most egregious political hacks in the
anti-corruption campaign du jour and thereby forcing political corruption into
a constant state of evolutionary improvement.
The most important and divisive problems that affect that status quo
become points the ruling party can pretend to do something about. The biggest
issue in Chicago for the last seventy years and longer has been race relations
and progress began here by many leaders claiming they were going to do
something about race relations. This was a tremendous change from “there ain’t
no problem,” the government listened to the people which translated into tiny
evolutionary changes at a super slow pace. Now Chicago is the most segregated major
city in America but Chicago also defines how bad the bottom is and it is better
than it used to be – not in comparison to the rest of country, every major Northern
and Southern City and Johannesburg has made more progress than Chicago in terms
of race relations but in comparison to yesterday we are a little better than we
were. Turkey can have that too, making tiny incremental progress on issues that
it is too embarrassed to do nothing about and unlike Chicago which sometimes
had to answer to courts, state and national government, Turkish Pseudo
democracy is completely free! Chicago
has enjoyed single party rule since 1931 and we’re still going strong.
Davatoglu and Erdogan said Turkey wanted “stability,” and nothing is as stable
as removing Justice and sound political development from government, so welcome
to our club! <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-28460769248650573182015-10-19T09:57:00.001-07:002015-10-19T09:57:25.257-07:00Russia’s Pyrrhic Diplomacy<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/sites/sbs.com.au.news/files/20150915001177281727-minihighres.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/sites/sbs.com.au.news/files/20150915001177281727-minihighres.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="social-share-buttons top hide-on-960" data-share-url="http://www.jpost.com/page.aspx?pageid=13&articleid=426182" id="177_ArticleControl_dShareButton" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px auto; padding: 16px 0px 20px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 720px;">
<br /></div>
<div class="article-text" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 20px !important; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px 0px 32px; max-width: 730px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="article-box-banner-wrap dyperf dyMonitor" data-adid="24478||675|||" style="border: 0px; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px 14px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
</div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Sometimes a “police action” is a war in disguise such as America in Vietnam and Russia in the Ukraine to make the odium of war more palatable and other times “war” is a police action such as the war in Grenada or the Falkand islands but are called war to bolster nationalism. Russia has split the difference between the two versions with its military projection in Syria. If war is merely “the continuation of diplomacy by other means” as Carl von Clausewitz described war, Russia has gained far less than the bombast or bomb blast of Russia projecting force into the Middle East would appear to give.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Russia is looking for a Russian Grenada moment, a “we’re back” moment that the Reagan administration was able to leverage to bolster nationalism after the Iran hostage crisis. For a good 72 hours, Russia enjoyed this internationally but Russia has probably failed to save the Assad regime, failed to find a way to fight ISIS well, failed to demonstrate the Russian War machine is a machine anyone but Russia needs except for the occasional bargain and Russia seems incapable of implementing a long term strategy that would either lead to stability or a higher profile for the Russian federation. Russia has been further exposed as being in an alliance with Iran and Hezbollah which will harm both nations over the long term as they will be increasing seen as an adversary worth marginalizing. The only bigger loser in Syria is the Obama administration that seems to forget when Washington does nothing, someone will do something terrible.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Russia’s message to the world was supposed to be, “if you don’t negotiate with us diplomatically then you’ll have to negotiate with our military” but the real message has become don’t worry if Russia fights some mass murdering Sunni terrorists but supports Shia terrorism because Russia handles both poorly. Russia believes it has brought the din of war to Syria, Russia is printing “Support Assad” t-shirts like a third world country facing inflation prints currency but Syria involvement could be the “dim” of war leads to and ultimately ends Putin’s Russia as thoroughly as Word War I ended Czarist Russia. </div>
</div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-63797908933517957992015-09-24T11:46:00.001-07:002015-09-24T11:46:07.619-07:00Satan breaks 9 year Hajj losing streak<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1310C/production/_85729087_7818f8e6-e612-4ac2-abd9-f8733133bce2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1310C/production/_85729087_7818f8e6-e612-4ac2-abd9-f8733133bce2.jpg" height="179" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;">King Salmon, Custodian of the Two Holy
Mosques, is going to need a big mop this year. During the part of the Hajj
where “Satan” is stoned by the Muslim faithful, stones and curses are thrown at
a stone walls meant to represent Satan and usually he loses and most people
would expect without arms or legs he could never win. Any Satanic victory in
Mecca must be very embarrassing. The stampeding that has so far killed over 700
pilgrims is the worst in 25 years according to AP and the worst disaster since
the 2006 loss of just under 350 people. So, how is it that the worse angel prevails?
The Saudi Kingdom has been knocking down and paving over anything that is
UNESCO worthy to build shopping malls and five star hotels, perhaps in the
hopes of renaming the place Mecca Disney but it seems they may be lacking in
crowd control. Perhaps, the Saudis should consider building more hospitals.
There’s no reason why Islam’s holiest place has to seem more like an oversized
European football/soccer stadium. There is only one good way to reduce the
problems during the Hajj and that is to reduce the number of people. There are
only three ways to reduce the number of people, either charge more and make
everything more expensive, decide on a manageable number and limit visits to
that number or let people trample each other to death. Option three is getting
ugly. </span>I wish my Jewish
readers l’shana tova and my Muslim readers an easy, reflective fast – Eid
mubarak.<o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-84450827273017261612015-09-17T10:30:00.004-07:002015-09-17T11:43:57.575-07:00Abbas Stubs His Toe With Jerusalem "Dirty Feet" Comment<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://jtf.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/muslim_arabs_riots_violence1-860x280.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="104" src="https://jtf.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/muslim_arabs_riots_violence1-860x280.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12px;">Quick, what’s the second holiest site in Islam? The malls outside of Mecca, after that it’s Medina. What’s the third holiest site in Islam, if you thought the answer is Jerusalem, you’d be wrong. There are several reasons why, "And thereafter We said to the Children of Israel: ‘Dwell securely in the Promised Land.' And when the last warning will come to pass, We will gather you together in a mingled crowd." (Qur'an, Sura 17:104, "The Night Journey") This is significant, because Islam’s prophet not only said that Israel belongs to the Jews, he did so as part of his “Night Journey” where he dreamed his soul had come to Jerusalem. While Jerusalem should be and is a sight that Muslims find holy, it is not an Islamic holy place as the rise of Islam did not confer holiness on this sight but recognized what predated the Muslim religion and the holiness of the people who had built and lost two temples there. Such a statement may seem extreme and against Islam but considering the controversy at the holy site there is no equitable solution while ignoring inequity. To simply be kind to a narrative supported by people who defy the </span><span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12px;">Qur'an makes no sense</span><span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12px;">. Later, the Ottoman’s in a fit of war against the Crusaders built the Dome of the Rock and the Al Aqsa Mosque complex in ironic defiance of the </span><span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12px;">Qur'an</span><span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12px;">. There’s no need to see the Ottomans as any better or worse than the European crusaders who would likely build a Church over the ruins of the Temple and whom the Ottoman’s were competing with, but to Jews they were ultimately a pair of nest stealers. So fast-forward several hundred years of Ottoman, British, and Jordanian occupation of Jerusalem and there’s quite a mess. For hundreds of years Muslims have prevented the free access of Jews to Jerusalem and Israel. Allowing the Waqf to administer the holy site has continued much of that failure. The Waqf could be replaced or reformed but Jews need to exercise their rights, right now. </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin-top: 12pt;">
<span style="font-family: Times;">For Muslims, there is nothing to fear from Jewish prayers, if there were any justice in the world, all the nations and religions of the world that bless themselves by Abraham would be allowed to pray there. Jews, Muslims, Sikhs, Baha’i, Christians, Mormons and anyone else who has a hankering to commune with God in a historic setting. No one but Muslims are allowed in Mecca, this is a pure “we’re right” zone and there is something to be said for all the prayer and ritual that goes on and creates a sense of inter-Muslim brotherhood. I don’t think anyone else is quite so exclusive but I doubt there are too many Muslims and Jews in Vatican City or attending Church in Salt Lake City but Jerusalem should be an opportunity for Muslims and all Abrahamic faiths to find a similar brotherhood with each other. Wouldn’t that be great for everyone, including Muslims? Instead,<a _fcksavedurl="http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Abbas-Israelis-have-no-right-to-desecrate-our-holy-sites-with-their-filthy-feet-416307" href="http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Abbas-Israelis-have-no-right-to-desecrate-our-holy-sites-with-their-filthy-feet-416307">Mahmoud Abbas</a>, determined to show himself the least amongst God’s children and pharaonic in his certitude, said of Jews: “</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">They have no right to desecrate [Al Aqsa & Church of the Holy Sepulchre] them with their filthy feet.” Meanwhile, </span><a _fcksavedurl="http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2015/09/0916-links-german-bank-closes-quds-day.html#.VfnCdbxViko" href="http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2015/09/0916-links-german-bank-closes-quds-day.html#.VfnCdbxViko" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Palestinians wait</a><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> outside the complex with piles of </span><a _fcksavedurl="https://twitter.com/drMkmo5/status/643364438129553412" href="https://twitter.com/drMkmo5/status/643364438129553412" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">rocks</a><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> at the ready to prey on any Jews who might want to pray at their holy sight. Prime Minister Netanyahu is ready to answer violence with violence and with the Arab violence proving to be unrelenting, following the death of Alexander Levlovitz events could get grim. Since there has been nearly a year since the shooting of Yehuda Glick by religious terrorists, the Prime Minister has been too slow to act and now must act midway in a avalanche of violence. While there are a lot of competing territorial claims on Israel’s capital and holy sights, a long Muslim tradition at Israel’s holiest sight that must be taken into consideration, yet what right can Muslims possibly claim to any part of Jerusalem if they don’t believe God is for everybody? Palestinians cannot be instigators of religious violence and claim Jerusalem at the same time, they’ll have to choose or notice that they have already chosen. The Palestinians have been so inhospitable and violent, I doubt God wants to hang out there anymore but many people still do. Instead of having that traditional Middle Eastern contest of who can do the most damage, the Palestinians and Israelis should have that other traditional contest Middle Easterners are known for -- who can be most welcoming host. Racism, sectarianism, these are the isms that have come to define the Waqf’s administration of the Holy Sites. Time has come for people who want to just pray to take over for the “religious people.” There is no reason, except for mundane, petty, Earthly ones, why Muslims, Jews, Christians and anyone else who wants to join in can’t pray side-by-side anywhere in Jerusalem.</span></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-45770590531719432592015-09-10T08:06:00.000-07:002015-09-10T10:01:18.925-07:00CENTCOM's Manipulated Intelligence<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/554838284971438080/t2ePhe5e_400x400.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/554838284971438080/t2ePhe5e_400x400.jpeg" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;">50 intelligence analysts for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence-analyst-isis-allegations-2015-9">Centcom</a>
have formally complained that reports on Al Qaeda’s branch in Syria and ISIS
have been “<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/09/exclusive-50-spies-say-isis-intelligence-was-cooked.html?source=twitter&via=desktop">altered</a>”
to show the UN winning the war. In context of the last two administrations,
this is huge problem. We now have two administrations from two different
parties with very different views on how to deal with the Middle East pressing
intelligence into supporting policy initiatives with favorable intelligence.
The Obama administration is cultivating yes men like the previous Bush
administration did and there will be consequences. If the US public is
surprised by a sudden display of strength of either ISIS or Al Qaeda (Nursa
Front) then the US public will be reminded of Vietnam which will deeply
complicate US security and regional stability going forward. More importantly,
US intelligence now has a bipartisan and therefore systemic problem. The office
of the President can now be seen as untrustworthy with intelligence, therefore
some new form of congressional oversight will be necessary. </span>The Eric Snowden story centered on leaking state
secrets, suggesting the government was withholding information from the world,
the CENTCOM issue is that of a government lying to itself and the public. In
addition, Congress is reviewing the nuclear agreement with Iran which at its
core relies on US expertise and US intelligence to make certain the treaty will
prevent Iran from having a nuclear bomb and now the public will have to wonder
if that too is the product of senior level yes men. While there will always be
a certain amount of spin and pandering in public reports based on intelligence
by the party in power, government must have a way to get the most objective
facts possible and the public cannot tolerate institutionalized self-deception
in the executive branch, especially when that intelligence can affect US forces
under fire. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-9673094718775649452015-09-04T10:39:00.001-07:002015-09-04T10:44:05.238-07:00King Salmon’s “Honeymoon” in Washington<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQkJzFBYN1fLKFnYuuNHrJRCCKcccHHACA2VVNIay3x7pqkRBHYpw" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQkJzFBYN1fLKFnYuuNHrJRCCKcccHHACA2VVNIay3x7pqkRBHYpw" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hopefully King Salmon packed a decent after shave and some
breath mints as he jetted off to Washington. Salman Aldosary knows a man on a
honey moon when he sees one, “<span style="background: white;">By choosing the United States to be the
destination of his first visit since acceding to the Saudi throne, the
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman Bin Abdulaziz has dismissed
speculation that the honeymoon between Washington and Riyadh was coming to an end.”
This sounds like the official Saudi line, perhaps to keep that old flame Iran
at bay</span> in article “K<a href="http://english.aawsat.com/2015/09/article55345010/opinion-king-salman-in-washington" target="_blank">ing Salman in Washington</a>” appearing in Asharq
Al-Awsat. A message of stability is important when the parents are fighting and
considering the changes and disruption caused by Iran in the Persian Gulf there’s
a lot of fighting. Yemen has become a Saudi war right in their own backdoor,
Iran is about to become an even greater force for destabilization as the
sanctions peel off with no replacement policy to keep Iran at bay. Meanwhile, the
Saudis have a plan to starve Iran, Russian and those fracking US frackers of
money by keeping the price of oil low. Meanwhile, Tom Friedman reminds the
world of Saudi Arabia’s radical underbelly but the truth is that Saudi Arabia
may be in a bit of midlife crisis, women can’t drive but they can no vote. What
you vote for in an absolute monarchy is unclear to me but at least Women are on
equal footing the men on this problem and I do mean equal footing. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The US under President Obama has pretty much nailed the
coffin shut in Riyadh’s interests, Iraq has become more or less an Iranian
client state, the US did not support moderates in Syria so it looks like the
civil war will only produce radicalism, and now Iran is set to be a bigger and
more aggressive problem for the entire Middle East. On the other hand, the US
should be relatively pleased with Saudi Arabia, the oil over supply really
helped the US with both Iran and Russia, the Saudi’s increasing acceptance of
Israel may help make peace more likely and the possible Saudi interest in a
Kurdish state could really help stabilize the region in the long run. But like
in any honeymoon in Saudi Arabia, we don’t really know what kind of man Salmon
is yet, he may prove inconsistent and he reason to be upset but like any such
honeymoon, it is not that uncommon for it to get rough towards the end. All we really know is that two world
leaders feel the need to pose together and that does say something about the health
of the alliance. Salmon’s message will inevitably be, even the happiest of
marriages face considerable stress and need absolute cooperation when the house
is on fire and the Saudi Arabia isn’t seeing much cooperation from us but like
a good bride our president says just be patient. I think the world not just
King Salmon needs to know how the US will deal with Iran going forward. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-87418115059287191862015-09-03T13:00:00.001-07:002015-09-03T13:00:25.087-07:00Palestinian Headline News, literally<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.maannews.com/Photos/346233C.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.maannews.com/Photos/346233C.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Photo from Ma'an's article </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Five American students, mistaken for settlers were attacked
in Hebron with a petrol bomb and rocks. A Palestinian man provided shelter
until police arrived. The two young men were given first aid for light wounds.
The vehicle was torched. I would have loved to know if the man who provided
shelter also thought the two young men were settlers. According to Ma’an it was
five students and the person who assisted was Fayez Abu Hamdiyeh and that he
understood they were settlers. Bravo Abu Hamdiyeh, you are a hero. The
headlines tell the real story of the Middle East, Agence France Presse was
responsible for the article in The <a href="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Sep-03/313890-palestinians-attack-us-tourists-mistaken-as-settlers.ashx">Daily
Star of Lebanon</a>, “Palestinians attack US tourists mistaken as settlers” and
<a href="http://www.maannews.com/Content.aspx?id=767426">Ma’an</a>’s headline
is “Palestinian local rescues, shelters US tourists attacked in Hebron.” The Palestinians have always wanted to paint
the settlers as aggressors and Palestinians as just minding their own business
in Judea and Samaria but the fact is there are good and bad actors on both
sides. Also overlooked in this story is that the students were attacked for
looking Jewish, the presumption is they were mistaken for being settlers
because they are Jewish but the attackers may simply have wanted to pressure
Jews of any type from visiting the Tomb of the Patriarchs and their status as
settlers may have been irrelevant despire Abu Hamdiyeh mistaking them for
settlers. Abu Hamdiyeh has probably
risked his life or at least his safety by helping these tourists and so far all
he has to show for it is a cheap headline from Ma’an so they can avoid
mentioning the attack by Palestinians in the headline. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-54336666139796350222015-09-03T09:50:00.003-07:002015-09-03T09:50:31.656-07:00Nuclear Ayatollah is Shy a Backbone<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://img1.yourmiddleeast.com/media/news/images/2015/660x390720e58a7d10c20b6aa05373d79b0c9ce2b972af2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://img1.yourmiddleeast.com/media/news/images/2015/660x390720e58a7d10c20b6aa05373d79b0c9ce2b972af2.jpg" height="189" width="320" /></a></div>
<br /><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Wide reports of the world’s second most unsupreme leader, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, is pushing the deal to a parliament that is a big rubber stamp
outside the President’s jurisdiction. To put this in a venn diagram, imagine parliament
facing away from the President and Rouhani facing away from Parliament and then
imagine they are both helpless in the groping embrace of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and you’ve
got a perfect picture of how Iranian “democracy” works. Yet, the Supreme leader
is a big believer in representative democracy but not a fan as his actions
demonstrate. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is carefully following our politics,
which to be fair is a American “reality television” and it’s not coincidental
that the <a href="http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/846583">IRGC
hints</a> that it is going along as mentioned in my <a href="https://twitter.com/newsperplexed/status/639193364206759936">tweet</a>, the
IRGC is saying nuclear weapons are unnecessary for Iran’s defense, a true
statement that suggests they can only be aggressive weapons for the terror
state. While the Ayatollah has fallen short of endorsing the deal, he’s also
fallen short of being critical but has allowed rumors to come out stating both
positions. Apparently a holy leader cannot stand for anything before he knows
what America is going to do. Benjamin Netanyahu, frequently accused having no
more backbone than the polls allow is fearless of US policy choices and
American voters, rather he ultimately trusts democracy even when it errors but
not our Supreme Leader in Iran. He’s too fragile a creature to suffer the humiliation
of a vote contradicting his desires. There's no reason for Iran to keep Rouhani and Mohammad Javad Zarif out prison if the holy despot didn't like the deal. Even an ordinary despot could milk a US no vote
against the Iran deal into a year’s supply but not supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei. Iran is a far more fragile than the supporters and critics of the
Iran Nuclear Deal are giving credit for. Just look at the tiptoeing this
supreme autocratic does for something he wants. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-42299892643139044852015-09-01T08:19:00.003-07:002015-09-01T09:34:14.485-07:00Iran vs Israel: Nuclear Beauty Contest III<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.evangelicalendtimemachine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Iran-versus-Isra%C3%ABl.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.evangelicalendtimemachine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Iran-versus-Isra%C3%ABl.png" height="223" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Israel seemingly doesn’t want nations to know for certain whether it has nuclear weapons so that it is not pressured to join the NPT, this called nuclear ambiguity perhaps it should be called nuclear flirtation. Israel still faces the possibility of being wiped out by the combined conventional forces of all of its neighbors, diminished by 1979 peace accord with Egypt and the 1994 accord with Jordan is not eliminated. While Israel is gaining some integration into the larger Middle East as necessitated by Iran and ISIS, the pendulum could swing the other way if local populations do not learn to embrace their Jewish neighbor in the Levant. NATO faced a similar problem in Europe against the numerically superior Soviets. Nuclear deterrence, perhaps the greatest of Asymmetric warfare tactics was first established by Western Allies against the Soviets, only later by the Israelis against Arab States. Despite the similarities with deterrence, nuclear ambiguity harms the idea of nuclear deterrent policy as lampooned in Dr. Stangelove, “Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost, if you keep it a secret! Why didn't you tell the world, EH?” This ersatz deterrence policy has its origins in the Nixon administration and may have been suggested by Henry Kissinger to the Israelis for preventing US embarrassment and keeping the NPT out of the picture. The advantage of ambiguity is that it implies two things, nuclear weapons will be used against overwhelming force in a first strike and their purpose is ultimately defensive because Israel can’t threaten with something they don’t claim to have. We only really know this because Israel has never launched a nuclear missile and because the existential problem of needing to deter an entire region as ebbed but not disappeared. Israel could be perceived as a mad dog willing to use a WMD for its own glory but experience has dispelled what even at the time was an unrealistic possibility the need to deter the region from all out war remains palpable. Talk of a nuclear arms race by Middle Eastern nations is a direct result of Iran’s recent nuclear project, not Israel’s mature one. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Iran could be said to have fashioned its own ambiguity, Ayatollah Khamenei allegedly issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons stating such weapons were against Islam. The Washington Post, Nov 27<sup>th</sup>, 2013 “<a _fcksavedurl="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2013/11/27/did-irans-supreme-leader-issue-a-fatwa-against-the-development-of-nuclear-weapons/" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2013/11/27/did-irans-supreme-leader-issue-a-fatwa-against-the-development-of-nuclear-weapons/"><span class="s1">Did Iran’s supreme leader issue a fatwa against the development of nuclear weapons</span></a>” suggested that Iran had no problem with producing chemical weapons but was unable to find any written text of the alleged fatwa. More importantly a Fatwa, especially as posed by a Supreme Leader is arbitrary. Having and using nuclear weapons is against Islam only for as long as the Ayatollah says it is. Iran’s recent Reaganesque statements that it will achieve peace through power while unveiling a new Fateh 313 ballistic missile that represents progress on being able to deliver a nuke, <a _fcksavedurl="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/22/us-iran-military-missile-idUSKCN0QR07C20150822" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/22/us-iran-military-missile-idUSKCN0QR07C20150822"><span class="s1">President Rouhani</span></a> stated, "If a country does not have power and independence, it cannot seek real peace." The problem is Iran does have real power in its ability to project force into Syria, Gaza, the Golan, Iraq and Yemen nor is Iran in any danger of not surviving a conflict with any nation or nations. Iraq was unable to conquer Iran when Iran was in a very weak post-revolutionary position and Iraq was at the apex of its military power. Like China and Russia, The US and its allies have not attempted to invade Iran and topple the government and has no plans to do, nor would such an invasion likely to be successful as supply lines would be very strained and Iran would have a large, highly motivated population to strike a relatively exposed US with. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Israel has threatened many times to attack Iran because of its nuclear weapons program and has been presumed to be behind a series of assassinations of nuclear scientists, deploying malware against centrifuge productions but Israel has been circumspect in only wanting to attack the nuclear program. Iran is a general threat against the Jewish State and the region yet Israeli rhetoric does not pay Iran back in kind. Israel in conventional warfare has limited itself to the proxies of Iran and Syria rather than engage directly the source of terrorism. The Iranian nuclear program threatens Israel, obviously Israel's actions and rhetoric are highly antagonistic even if the antagonism is justifiable and outweighed by Iranian threats. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">One reason for the antagonism, beyond the infiltration of Israeli territories with Iranian sponsored terror groups Islamic Jihad and for some time, Hamas in addition to their proxy Hezbollah in Syria, is Iran continuously threatens to “wipe Israel off the map.” More ominously, Iran claimed that Israel could be destroyed in 9 minutes with missiles as translated by <a _fcksavedurl="http://www.memri.org/report/en/print6058.htm" href="http://www.memri.org/report/en/print6058.htm"><span class="s1">MEMRI</span></a> and reported in by <a _fcksavedurl="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4185497,00.html" href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4185497,00.html"><span class="s1">Dudi Cohen</span></a> for ynetnews but the implication would have to be such devastating missile strikes would need to be nuclear. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Worse still, Iran has a considerable track records for endangering civilians and policies for killing civilians through its proxies. Both Hezbollah and Hamas have Iranian sponsored doctrines which make targets of enemy civilian populations as well domestic civilian populations by embedding military operatives in civilian areas. There is little room to doubt that Iran would have no doctrine to prevent using nuclear weapons to win a war, even one it chooses to start. Iran has also continues to support Syria militarily which uses chemical weapons against its civilians. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Iran has WMD, chemical weapons, during the Iran-Iraq, described by <a _fcksavedurl="http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/cw.htm" href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/cw.htm"><span class="s1">Global Security</span></a> although those chemical weapons could be considered a counter to Iraq’s use of such weapons there was no doctrine on Iran’s part against using them. In Iran’s defense, it was catching up to an enemy using chemical weapons on the battlefield but there is no indication that these weapons turned the tide of the war for Iran, in fact the Iraqi use of superior conventional weapons and having a better trained military proved to very inadequate for invading Iran. While Iran gets called a paper tiger for failing to resupply Yemen, the real strength of the Iranian military is dug in defenses at home.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The inability to project military force well while having designs on extending Iranian influence in the region has committed Iran to a strategy of exporting revolution supported by asymmetric warfare. “Asymmetric warfare” can refer to guerrilla warfare and insurgency tactics but it has also become a fig leaf term for terrorism. A human bomb in a grocery store is an asymmetric tactic. While Iran is gaining some possibility of confidence and credibility for its Hezbollah and Iranian military forces in Syria, Iran has historically relied on terrorist tactics as both a means to inflict damage on an enemy as well as the gain the political benefit of making civilian feel endangered. The Buenos Aires bombing against the AMIA because it is Jewish by a suicide bomber proves Iran has no compunctions about killing innocent civilians for perceived gain. There is nothing in Iranian military doctrine that credibility denies using any weapon against an enemy or its civilian population. If Iran could get its hands on something better than nuclear it would and it would have no reason to use it. A terrible beauty wants to slouch its way toward Bethlehem. </span></div>
<div class="p1" style="font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
<span style="background: white;">Originally published in the Jerusalem Post in the <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Blogs/Middle-East-by-Midwest/Iran-vs-Israel-Nuclear-Beauty-Contest-III-413846" target="_blank">Middle East by Midwest</a> blog.</span></span></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-24009191002934923952015-08-31T13:25:00.001-07:002015-08-31T13:36:16.827-07:00The blockage is internal, Dr. Ibish<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.cts.usc.edu/graphics/atherosclerosis1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.cts.usc.edu/graphics/atherosclerosis1.jpg" height="221" width="320" /></a></div>
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a><span id="goog_376737665"></span><span id="goog_376737666"></span><br />
<br />
In his August 29th column, “<a href="http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/the-road-to-statehood-is-blocked-in-all-directions" target="_blank">The Road to statehood is blocked in all directions”</a> which appeared in the Abu Dhabi paper the National, Dr. Ibish manages to ignore nearly all the paths that are and have been open to the Palestinian Authority for statehood. He starts with a screed against Danny Danon, claiming Danon’s appointment as Israel’s ambassador to the UN means the sky is falling on a two state solution. While Danon is no advocate for a two state solution, he's less against giving up land to an Arab State than Menachem Begin was. An article that starts with flogging Danon is not going dig up the PA intransigence for the last 10 plus years of Abbas fruit on the bottom rule. I find it hard to imagine that Danon would have a job in government if Abbas negotiated with the Israelis or was willing to make the compromises necessary for peace. Instead, Abbas has led the PA away from the Oslo accords to seek recognition unilaterally leaving Dr. Ibish to complain the Israelis are somehow not two state enough after all these years of zero progress.<br />
<br />
Dr. Ibish writes, “Israel’s government has dropped all pretenses” but pretenses are all that’s left of the peace process barring the possibility of new Palestinian leadership. He then claims, “It is no longer to possible to argue honestly with Israel’s government is open to, let along supportive of, peace with the Palestinians.” I think it is possible to argue that Israel is no longer optimistic on a peace deal with the Palestinian Authority but Abbas has kept the PA off a war footing and Israel has done the same. Peace is possible, “Palestine” could become an semi autonomous part of Israel, something I think will be very difficult considering the amount of corruption in the PA and its lack of democracy but such a peace is possible. It is also possible that the Palestinians and Israelis will both hold their noses and come to an agreement that creates a mostly Arab state within Judea and Samaria.<br />
<br />
“Palestinian leaders themselves appear to be further burying, rather than rescuing, their own cause” is a solid point and Dr. Ibish goes on to list Abbas’ attempts to purge rivals, increase control over the PLO and angering European financial supporters. However, Dr. Ibish then creates a false dichotomy of a PA state increasingly finding international acceptance instead of doing the work on the ground to create a Palestinian state. I’ve always called Abbas, ‘yesterday’s man doing yesterday’s work’ but a lot of progress along with a lot of corruption has happened on his watch. The PA is much futher along on its project toward a state since the time of the Grand Mufti and then Arafat. Palestinians still need the man the world hoped Abbas was but not being up to all the tasks is not the same as making no progress. While Ibish is correct that Abbas is making himself available to the "highest international bidder," I believe pitting Iran against Saudi Arabia the problem is the highest bid remains a peace settlement with the Israelis and yet Israel is not allowed a bid.<br />
<br />
“However, events on the ground, and the attitudes and conduct of both the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships, point to a very different and extremely dangerous future. Viewed from that perspective, the cause of Palestine appears to be a rapidly vanishing aspiration,” Dr. Ibish is being understandably myopic here. The big picture is that regional acceptance of Israel is increasing which means region is likely to be more supportive of the compromises necessary to make peace, governments that are tired of the Israeli-Arab conflict are more likely to pressure Abbas to make and agree to some of those compromises and the silver lining to the tragic disruption in Syria is that Palestinians may one day eventually gain some rights and citizenship in the places they reside without prejudice to their claims against Israel. The most important item that Dr. Ibish ignores is that were an Abbas willing to negotiate with Israel and a peace deal was struck, no Israeli government could resist the popular desire for peace with Israelis nor the pressure of the international community because Israel is a democracy. If all his accusations against the Israelis were correct, Dr. Ibish would still be incorrect because he wants to blame the failure of the peace process on the Israelis even when he describes Abbas as “recently sprung into uncharacteristically vigorous action…hasn’t been behaving like a national leader,” he still claims “Israel has dismissed Palestinian statehood.” While Ibish makes a great case for dismissing Palestinian Statehood in his description of Abbas, Israel has not done so but Israel appears to share Dr. Ibish’s skepticism regarding Abbas and has leadership acting like “national leaders.” The PA has long since been saddled with a pair of ruby slippers but wizards like Dr. Ibish keep giving bad advice by on how to get home by casting Israel as a wicked witch when the PA has had the power all along to become a state. All that ails Palestine is ultimately internal.<br />
<br />
<br />dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-22662682648668320812015-08-29T14:11:00.000-07:002015-08-30T20:31:57.961-07:00Adherence to Anti-Israeli narrative is a sure sign of confusion <div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white; color: #1e1e1e; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://media.giphy.com/media/wi9yHmX7Sztuw/giphy.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://media.giphy.com/media/wi9yHmX7Sztuw/giphy.gif" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white; color: #1e1e1e; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white; color: #1e1e1e; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">W. Robert Pearson, wrote in the August 26<sup>th</sup>
article, “<a href="http://www.mei.edu/content/article/erdogan-and-turkeys-tipping-point" target="_blank">Erdogan and Turkey's Tipping Point</a>” for Middle East Institute about Erdogan’s
ambition displacing Turkey’s “dream” of a united society and cites the example
of Ataturk’s revolt against the allied powers after World War I. Pearson moves
quickly into a small list of things that went wrong for Erdogan such as the
failure of Greek Cyprus to agree to a UN sponsored settlement and then
described the Turkish inability to mediate between Syria and Israel which ended
with the Gaza War in 2008 where Pearson wrote: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white; color: #1e1e1e; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background: white; color: #1e1e1e; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Then the deepest cut came with Israel.
After he visited Israel in 2005 and led Israeli-Turkish relations to new
heights despite personal misgivings, his efforts to mediate between Israel and
Syria were scuppered by the Israeli Gaza operations in 2008, which convinced
him that the Israelis were duplicitous.</span></blockquote>
<br />
Deepest cut? Et tu Israel? This biased description misses some key elements. Erdogan’s interest in interceding between Israel and Syria was to show Turkey as a diplomatic power at the expense of US prestige and Israeli security. Syria was sponsoring with Iran proxy operations against Israel in the form of rocket launches against civilians and Israel’s response was limited to Hamas. A justifiable attack on Syria during negotiations might have been bad form and Israel showed self-restraint. If fingers need to be pointed, why didn’t Erdogan blame the Syrians for the attacks or at least demand the Syrians sponsor a Hamas ceasefire? It the Turkish government that cancelled Israel’s participation in the Anatolian Eagle military exercises with the US and Turkey. If Erdogan wanted to be effective by being fair, why didn’t have complain about the actual problem of violence against Israeli civilians? There was no reason to break of the security relationship with Israel beyond Erdogan’s doctrine of support of Sunni terrorism and his animus against Israel. Pearson described Erdogan as having misgiving about Israel but
Erdogan is a classic anti-Semite, during a protest in which Erdogan was being
called a murderer and thief, he followed Taner Kuruca into a store and punched
him but he also called a local of Soma “Israeli Sperm” although Jews and Israel
had nothing to do with this protest. This led, opposition deputy chairman at
the time, Haluk Koc to say, "<a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/anasayfa_erdogan-allegedly-punches-man-in-soma-aide-kicks-mourner_347824.html" target="_blank">Erdoğan's hate speech knows no limits and hehas gone so far as to resort to violence against a citizen</a>." The previous,
Islamist Prime Minister, Necmettin Erbakan also tried to derail what had been
at that point a very strong and friendly alliance with Turkey but he failed
where Erdogan succeeded because the Kemalist Military, the Mustafa Kemal
Ataturk military doctrine for whom W. Robert Pearson believes Araturk used to
unite Turkey kept that relationship very strong throughout Erbakan’s short term
and beyond until military leaders were tried and convicted on false charges of
planning a coup. There had been many coupes in the past, so there were many
reasons to attack the military which opposed Erdogan’s Islamism but when the
smoke cleared, Erdogan had a free hand to demolish the Israeli-Turkish
relationship. Something both Islamist governments wanted.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pearson claims Erdogan misunderstood Obama and somehow it
was this misunderstanding that led Erdogan misuse Obama’s “offer of friendship”
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Erdogan’s response was to use the
partnership to aggrandize his influence domestically and to try to use the U.S.
tie as a personal endorsement of himself as a regional and global leader. He
was even sharply critical of the United States when it served his own domestic
purposes.</blockquote>
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is an excuse, Erdogan doesn’t appear to care that much
for democracy which has become very clear to almost everyone as he abuses the constitutional
restrictions on his current ceremonial office of President and he took
advantage of President Obama but he also took advantage Abdullah Gul and then
sidelined him, he took advantage of Fethullah Gulen and now wants to arrest
him, he took advantage of the Kurdish HDP party to grain a majority and when
the party gained votes at his expense he ended peace talks to fight Kurds. Even
now he is allowing Americans to use the Incilik air base so Turkey can have
some cover in fighting the Kurds. The pattern here is of a politician who takes
advantage of anything in his reach. He misunderstands little, our President
misunderstood Erdogan. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The world expects scholars to be accurate with recent
history but the inherent anti-Semitic narrative against Israel has infected
this analysis, Israel did not harm the Turkish-Israeli relationship in 2009.
Erdogan as is his habit took on a conflict he did not have the credibility or
temperment to negotiate and he did so to prove Turkey is a regional power worth
paying attention to but he also has a clear distaste for Israelis and Jews and
that has affected his foreign policy. Even now the contradictions are very
stark, he supports Hamas but keeps the Kurdish Arafat, Abdullah Ocalan, in jail
and wants to sideline a Turkish-Kurdish leader who is demanding the PKK disarm.
Treating similar things as though they were different is the definition of
prejudice and W. Robert Pearson would understand President Erdogan a lot better
if he could recognize such attitudes and learned to question popular narratives
about Israeli-Turkish relations. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pearson further demonstrates he doesn’t understand Erdogan
with the following: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
Erdogan has always had the ability
to take the path that will realize the Turkish dream—a true democracy at peace
and in harmony with itself, its national and religious past, and the world
beyond its borders. Not too many years ago, he represented that hope. Whether
he will step forward to provide that principled guidance depends on him— and
the voters of Turkey—in a rapidly approaching moment of decision.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Erdogan has no interest in having an inclusive society where
conservative Muslims enjoy only the same freedoms as their secular counterparts
as he only cares about those secularists that might vote for him and he only
said things like that to avoid a coup when the AK party first took power. Other
AKP leaders may have that “dream” but not Erdogan. He is a classic machine politician right down
to the bribes and public works and infrastructure projects. Pearson thinks
public pressure will make Erdogan change his mind and embrace the “Turkish
dream” but Erdogan never had that dream. Nonetheless, Pearson writes, “The next phase
of that dream—a truly democratic Turkey—is waiting to be made reality.” That
dream does exist, Pearson is right about that but really the more conservative
of the conservative Muslims want secularists to be more like them and secular people
really don’t trust religious conservatives whom they see as backward and
waiting to create a tyranny. People do have friends and families across the
divide who trust each other and the question is what political system will
allow mutual political trust. So I agree with Pearson there is “a dream” in
Turkey of greater unity but it is alongside a fear of socially pressured indoctrination
and tyranny on both sides. Turkey does need a Muslim but pro secularist party
that wants to protect religious rights rather than impose religion and stand
for Muslim values, a real Muslim-Democratic party but Erdogan’s attempt at a
cult of personality with the AKP party is not the way. What Turkey needs is for
the AKP to split and give people a real choice between freedom for religion in
the context of secularism in politics and an Islamism that shows little
pretense for secularism. Perhaps Bulent Arinc or Abdullah Gul could create a credible alternative to the AKP. If this
happens, Turkey will be far better represented with a healthy political
spectrum but problems will remain. In a country that is 90% Muslim, secularism is
necessarily anti-clerical and Turkey has not yet found a way to strike a
balance between religion and secularism. Erodgan is not the man to figure this
out, nor is the he the man to create a situation where other leaders can figure
out how to maximize religious freedom for everyone. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There’s a problem with academia when it can only see what it
believes, Pearson buys into the Israel at fault canard for Turkish Israeli
relations and he can’t see that the current President of Turkey has more in
common with Richard J. Daley and Nursultan Nazarbayev then Martin Luther King. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-84808105201626821322015-08-28T15:05:00.002-07:002015-08-28T15:06:27.551-07:00Polling shows Erdogan's attack on the Kurds is failing<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://theiranproject.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Turkish-Prime-Minister-Tayyip-Erdogan.preview.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://theiranproject.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Turkish-Prime-Minister-Tayyip-Erdogan.preview.jpg" height="271" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Erdogan is not failing to kill Kurds, the fighting is going
just fine with enough dead bodies produced by both sides to make Erdogan and
PKK delighted about their prospects and impress their diehards. Turkey’s national Kurdish HDP party remains
demanding the <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/pkk-must-absolutely-lay-down-arms-against-turkey-hdp-co-chair.aspx?pageID=238&nID=85469&NewsCatID=338">PKK
to disarm</a> as was reported on July 15<sup>th</sup> in the Hurriyet Daily
News and other papers. Mahmoud Abbas and
Jerry Adams could take lessons Selahattin Demirtas but he is clearly expressing
collective exhaustion by the fighting over the years and that kind of fatigue
is what is required to make peace with terrorists. Success within the political
spear is also necessary, the HDP had an unprecedented success in the last
election, taking support away from Erdogan’s AKP which has ironically sparked
this latest round of fighting. In a government that is only capable of the most
Byzantine political alliances, a government which only makes cynical political
moves, the sudden betrayal of the Kurds and ending the peace talks after the
election didn’t produce votes for the AKP but the behavior stood out as pretty
cynical even for them. Like the HDP to the PKK, the Turkish population doesn’t
appear to be going along with this war. A <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/national_gezici-poll-reveals-falling-support-for-ruling-party_379235.html">Gezici</a>
poll in Turkey shows a slight drop in votes for AKP to 38% which is only 1%
drop but shows that the AKP is not recovering votes lost in the last election. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Erdogan’s contract with the public has failed. Turks cannot ignore the all the building that
happened during its administration or its political improvement as a player on
the world stage but everything it was supposed to stand for has been rolled
back. The AKP was supposed to secure
civil rights for religiously conservative Turks without eroding anyone else’s
rights but through government pressure and forcing laws through the legislature
many secular freedoms have been rolled back, frequently minor ones such as
limits on alcohol sales but were noticed by the secular majority. Also, having
journalists outside of jail has become a luxury rather than a standard, the
crack down on by the police on the Gezi protesters is still an open wound for
many. Erdogan is urging people to vote
of stability because the constitution requires he not directly endorse the AKP
but a police state at war with a third of the population while bullying the
majority is not the stability people are looking for and the economy is
faltering. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Economically, Turkey has slid backward. While the AKP did
not break the inflation spiral over a decade ago, it managed the economy well
with relatively good monetary policies, very smooth transitioning of the
Turkish Lira to denominations that made non-inflationary sense. The Turkish
Lira was always the weakest of the BRICS currency in terms of debt and foreign
currency reserves yet most of the building debt is financed in dollars and
building has been the core constituency for Erdogan’s AK party. Drawing support
from conservative Muslims in the black sea region of Turkey, economic
opportunity and public works projects brought the AKP many voters who always
felt on the outside looking in on the republic. With the Lira severely down
against the dollar after a decade of Erdogan directly interfering with interest
rates, the whole building sector is now operating at a loss. Meanwhile, every
foreign policy initiative has failed, Turkey is not trusted by any Middle
Eastern nation except Qatar, the US President with whom he was always able to
get a photo opportunity now avoids direct contact -- even Erdogan has admitted
the relationship has gone cold. AK means white as in pure but the AK Partisi as
they like to be called is anything but pure, Erdogan has had to disrupt police
and Judicial institutions to avoid investigation of his friends and family for
corruption. The AKP has admitted the arrest and conviction of many military
people for a fictional coup were based on falsified evidence but is now in
waging lawfare against the Gulenist movement who were the co-conspirators
against the Military and previously close allies of the AKP. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Renewing war with the Kurds is Erdogan’s attempt to “wag the
dog” with Turkish voters but it is not working, AKP continues to slip in the
poles which means the last election was not an abnormality and the snap
elections engineered by Erdogan may only be detrimental for him. The President
pushed hard for snap elections with the unprecedented move in denying the
number two CHP a chance to form a government. Erdogan has exceeded his powers
as president, the public seems very much aware the man they voted into a
ceremonial office wants to the Government to be more like Putin’s Russia rather
than a Western Democracy. Unfortunately for President Erdogan, Russia isn’t
doing so well either. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-5669734191446989732015-08-28T06:36:00.002-07:002015-08-28T06:38:14.732-07:00Lebanon: Garbage out has always been the problem<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://vid.alarabiya.net/images/2015/07/25/87ea4835-1444-452d-a784-309572674db1/87ea4835-1444-452d-a784-309572674db1_16x9_600x338.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://vid.alarabiya.net/images/2015/07/25/87ea4835-1444-452d-a784-309572674db1/87ea4835-1444-452d-a784-309572674db1_16x9_600x338.jpg" height="179" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
“You stink” really should be refrain of the Lebanese public for the last several decades but all the garbage on the streets has at least prepared wealthy Lebanese to emigrate to the American East coast. This is country where the son of an assassinated leader works with the organization that killed his father in the same government. How could dysfunction rule! Whether failing to rid themselves of the PLO in the seventies and eighties, failing to fight Hezbollah and more recently the failure to disarm Syria and Iran's proxy or the failure to toss our sectarianism and create a boarder sense of identity in the nineties and into the millennium; the Lebanese have always had trouble ridding themselves of their garbage.<br />
<br />
Tammam Salam’s government has been bedridden since the elections, the problems Lebanon faces are daunting. Former hegemon, Syria has broken down into civil war creating a refugee and demographic crisis for the always teetering on civil war public. Hezbollah has taken on yet another way since joining the government by taking the sides of Lebanon’s oppressor, Assad’s Syria and it is possible this will eventually put Lebanese regular forces in danger.<br />
<br />
Hezbollah and Michael Aoun’s Christian “Free Patriotic Movement,” a capital on Lebanon’s fifth column, have walked out of a cabinet meeting because….they have not said yet but the absolute stink of their choices is unavoidable. In the meantime, the police are getting heavy handed with protesters.<br />
<br />
Hezbollah has now sided with the protesters and are demanding the government resign, at a moment when Hezbollah is over stretched militarily and potentially very unpopular for supporting tyrant-in-chief Bashar Assad, Hezbollah sees the opportunity to pull the life support on an already weak government to strengthen its own hand. At a time when Iran may become a resurgent power, Lebanon may only be further ensnared by Iran proxy force. Something just doesn’t stink in Lebanon, something is rotten.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
Originally published in the Jerusalem Post in the <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Blogs/Middle-East-by-Midwest/Lebanon-Garbage-out-has-always-been-the-problem-413520" target="_blank">Middle East by Midwes</a>t blog.</div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-49360904377730395462015-08-24T11:50:00.000-07:002015-08-25T06:43:06.898-07:00All Palestine occupied by Palestinians<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://likud.nl/wp-content/uploads-plikud01/2012/12/1920mandate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://bokertov.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451bc4a69e2019103c042b5970c-pi" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://bokertov.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451bc4a69e2019103c042b5970c-pi" height="156" width="200" /></a><a href="http://likud.nl/wp-content/uploads-plikud01/2012/12/1920mandate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://likud.nl/wp-content/uploads-plikud01/2012/12/1920mandate.jpg" height="140" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white;">President Rivlin while hosting leader of Judean and Samarian
communities <a href="http://www.president.gov.il/English/Presidential_Activities/Press_Releases/Pages/news_240815.aspx" target="_blank">claims</a> Israel’s rights to its land,</span> including Judea
and Samaria, as a basic fact in spite of claims of “occupation” coming from
Ramallah, Gaza City and many other places. What an egotistical, impetuous,
bullheaded philistine this Israeli President is! Without any restraint he carried
on, "We must not give anyone the sense that we are in any doubt about our
right to our land.” Every time I hear or read the phrase “the occupied
territories” I wonder if the person making the statement knows by whom they are
occupied. The word “Palestine” is derived from is the Latin “Palestina” which
was the Roman name for occupied Judea after the destruction of the Second
Temple. This Latin word is based on Philistine but there were no Philistines at
the time, so while those words are kissing cousins they mean different things. Parts of Judea and Samaria frequently referred
to by its Jordanian occupational name “The West Bank” are occupied by somebody
other than Jews but the word “Palestinian” came to refer to Jews living in
Eretz Israel also known as “Palestine.” Eretz Israel, Palestine, was run like a
colony by the Syrians within the Ottoman Empire. The more modern usage of the
word comes from the Mandate of Palestine. Arabs of Palestine, considering themselves
Syrians rejected the term until the early seventies but it’s important to
understand this rejection when considering the actions and strategies of Haj
Amin al-Husayni, Grand Anti-Semite, scion of a lineage of anti-Semites and
oppressors, free Nazi war criminal, Mufti of Jerusalem and leader of Arab
Higher [National] committee and his decision to reject his Palestinianess as
being too Jewey led him to create a Nakba for himself and those who willing followed
him into disaster. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When Britain ruled Mandate Palestine, it did not just rule
the Jews aka “the Palestinians” although Palestine had been entrusted by Jews
and world government to Britain to help form a viable Jewish State. They also
ruled the Arabs as though they were Palestinians and sometimes Britain did so
in preference of Arabs and to the detriment of the Jews living there. We could
call the Arabs living in Eretz Israel during the mandate period “Palestinians”
just as we must call the Jews living there Palestinians even though most Arabs
of they would treated the designation as an anathema. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So who rules the Eretz Mandate Palestine today? Mandate
Palestinians do, every inch is ruled by a Palestinian. These Palestinians rule from
their seats of government in Amman, Ramallah, Gaza City and Jerusalem. King
Abdullah might not be a mandate Palestinian as he is of foreign, Hashemite
stock but his wife and children are as Palestinian as any Arab who bought into
Yasser Arafat’s Egyptian sponsored sense of national identity: close enough
where crowns are concerned. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s almost a shame the Palestinians changed the name of
their country from Palestine to Israel because I would love to see the Mandate
Palestinian Arabs that did not become Israelis still calling themselves Syrians
and referring to Jerusalem as occupied Syria.
Imagine the people who talk out of their rears -- BDS (Bowel Discourse
Syndrome) having to mindlessly proclaim Arabs living autonomously in Judea and
Samaria (and Gaza) as occupied Syrians. A barrel bomb of laughs! How long could
Syrians then countenance living in Syrian, Lebanese and Jordanian refugee camps
when the only thing separating these peoples historically is nothing? The world
would have to consider the Palestinians are all over the lands of Mandate
Palestine and their status as a local problem.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m not saying the
Mandate Palestinians living in parts of Judea and Samaria can’t make a viable
nation for themselves within those lands. Considering themselves adrift, finding
Jewish Nationalism and Jewish rights to be a trigger for a xenophobic reaction
like the Mufti and Israelis frequently only seeing Palestinians a hostile
demographic bomb. Everyone needs to move
on. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Those Palestinians who formed the Emirate of Trans-Jordan
were able to carve out a state and Palestinian Jews were able to carve state
out of what was left of Mandate Palestine so why can’t Mandate Palestinians and
their government in Ramallah do the same? The Palestinians as they are known
today have been rejected by Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt, they reject Jews
and Israel and now Israelis reject them and that is enough to go it alone,
provided the Palestinians choose to make peace with their sovereign. President Rivlin understands a basic truth,
Israel is the legitimate sovereign of its lands and therefore the way to peace starts
with that understanding. The loudest supporters of “Palestine” fail at
understanding the conflict itself much less its resolution. Without the
assertion of Jewish rights as the point of negotiation the Palestinians and who
ever aids them are only building sandcastles for themselves. Because supporters of Palestine ignore the historical,
political and legal reality of the land and of the State of Israel, they box
themselves of nonstarter rhetoric. Demands to stop building homes and demands
to let Palestinians build a capital in the Israeli capital are typical. An
autonomous Arab state within parts of Judea and Samaria would just be another in
the group of Mandate Palestinians with states, it could live in peace and it
could flourish with Ramallah as its capital.
With such a state negotiated, perhaps Abbas can finally give up his
occupation and return the PA to democratic government. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-42843231932376291952015-08-24T04:53:00.003-07:002015-08-24T04:53:56.565-07:00De facto defect: Erdogan’s Latest Attempt at Dictatorship<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://41.media.tumblr.com/317aa294ea5eba3b0c336a54e91b1710/tumblr_moc6f7GWVA1rqfd3xo1_1280.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://41.media.tumblr.com/317aa294ea5eba3b0c336a54e91b1710/tumblr_moc6f7GWVA1rqfd3xo1_1280.jpg" height="165" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
President Erdogan, Turkey’s first elected President chafes
at being a symbolic representative of the state, non-partisan, ready to open a
bridge or salute a parade and he’s done all he could to flout the constitution
at his role by literally building a castle for himself with a cabinet room, making
partisan speeches, denying the number two party the opportunity to form a
government after his party failed to do so and once again demanding that the
government update the constitution to justify the “de facto” power he has
seized. He wants to alter the office of President from one that is symbolic to
one that has far more power than presidents in democratic nations, centralized
and undivided power similar to Putin’s Russia but with an Islamist bent.
Opposition CHP leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, is reported in <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/anasayfa_opposition-decries-coup-after-erdogans-regime-change-remarks_396663.html" target="_blank">Today’s Zaman</a> as
saying:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
The major feature of a coup maker
is that they stage a coup and then try to establish the legal basis for their
coups. Now, Erdoğan says ‘I staged this coup. It is now time to construct its
legal basis.' There is still a Constitution. There has been no change. Everyone
has to obey the Constitution. However, the president says the Constitution has
been changed virtually. The person saying this is the one who swore on his
honor and his life that he would be loyal to the Constitution [in his
presidential oath].”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For anyone uncertain of Erdogan’s push for dictatorial power
it is good to remember his tattered alliances. When President Abdullah Gül
wanted to be a moderating voice in the party he founded, he found he was
sidelined and now allowed to stand in the last election in the party for Prime
Minister. When the Gülen movement which had been in lockstep with the AK party
during elections and in persecuting the Turkish Military for coup claims that
proved to be false and complicit in getting opposition journalists jailed now
finds itself the subject of a witch hunt with the government attempting to
close Gülen’s schools, get Gülen extradited from the US and they have the
editor in chief of Zaman. The last
election was seen as a referendum on the Erdogan bid for a dictator like
President, the Kurdish HDP party broke with Erdogan’s AK party at that election
over the issue of a new presidential system and many voters defected to the HDP
denying the AK party the power to rewrite the constitution without opposition
cooperation. Erdogan’s response was to end the peace talks with the Kurds and
begin attacking them in Syria in order to sideline the HDP party which is still
calling for non-violence on both sides and for the PKK to disarm. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In Erdogan’s hometown of Rize, famous for its tea and
oblivious support for the President, would be dictator made his announcement
that the constitution must bend to his will or as Mustafa Akyol made light of
the concept in <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/08/turkey-erdogan-is-blamed-for-coup-after-elections.html" target="_blank">Al Monito</a>r: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
In other words, the European-style
parliamentary system enacted by the Turkish Constitution was no longer valid
because Erdogan had “de facto power” that overrode the constitution. So a new
constitution had to be crafted as soon as possible to reconcile the de facto
reality with the nation’s charter. The president was not made for the
constitution; rather the constitution must be made for the president.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The problem with Turkey is that despite a foolish renewed
war with the Kurds when a Kurdish alliance would protect Turkey, a time when
the Turkish economy is declining, a time when a figure head president is
successfully preventing coalition government and making the Prime Minister a
secondary figure, there is little that may prevent Erdogan’s power grab because
Turks generally see their President either as a problem, a solution but never a
danger and until the danger is recognized by the public, Turkish democracy will
remain in danger. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Originally published in the Jerusalem Post in the<a href="http://www.jpost.com/Blogs/Middle-East-by-Midwest/De-facto-defect-Erdogans-Latest-Attempt-at-Dictatorship-413017" target="_blank"> Middle East by Midwest</a> blog.</div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-39839056580341164072015-08-23T09:32:00.004-07:002015-08-23T09:32:22.584-07:00Welcome to Oil Falls<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/multimedia/dynamic/02339/BL13_newOil_prices_2339107f.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/multimedia/dynamic/02339/BL13_newOil_prices_2339107f.jpg" height="200" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Fareed Zacharia’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-consequences-of-the-oil-bust/2015/08/20/7c98defe-4770-11e5-846d-02792f854297_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a> article put the rise of ISIS and the Iran deal into the greater context of oil prices falling and a long
term glut. Zarcharia argues that Saudi Arabia is the primary cause because it
is willing to keep pumping oil in spite of declining profits to hard Shale,
Tight Oil, Russia and especially Iran but the long term willingness of Saudi
Arabia to continue is harder to read than stated by Fareed. There is a new King
and more importantly a frequently less experienced court making economic and
military decisions. However, North America’s available oil reserves are up, current
production will not be affected by the price of oil. <a href="http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/08/20/brace-yourself-here-comes-30-oil/" target="_blank">American Interes</a>t makes a similar statement
suggesting both US producers and OPEC are “holding steady at remarkably high
levels” of production. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-19/wti-oil-at-32-a-barrel-is-conceivable-reality-citigroup-says" target="_blank">Bloomberg reported</a>, “U.S. shale oil production will
eventually respond to low prices, with access to finance dwindling as “capital
markets are getting nervy,” Citigroup said”” meaning we may not have seen the
bottom price of oil but the bottom is not likely the resting place for oil
prices. The lesson North America should get out of this is that over production
does protect the price of oil and that may be worth the high investment cost.
No one should assume that Russia, Iran and Venezuela will not eventually
rebound just on the price of oil alone, there certainly could. But there is a short term opportunity,
meaning for four or five years domestically sponsored political change in these
counties is possible as well serious instability. Wherever the chips fall by
the end of that time will result either in world problems that need to be dealt
with or a more stable international scene. <o:p></o:p></div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529904504413968810.post-8205928590510733662015-08-23T01:12:00.003-07:002015-08-23T01:12:50.603-07:00Politics of the Turkish Lira and Saudi Riyal<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://rter.info/image.php?iso=SAR&name=2-6b60778ef1fb6b1f42ac3d266fd94353" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://rter.info/image.php?iso=SAR&name=2-6b60778ef1fb6b1f42ac3d266fd94353" height="200" width="200" /></a><a href="https://crazytraintotinkytown.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/turkish-lira.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="146" src="https://crazytraintotinkytown.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/turkish-lira.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="article-text" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 20px !important; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px 0px 32px; max-width: 730px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="article-box-banner-wrap dyperf dyMonitor" data-adid="24478||765|||" style="border: 0px; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px 14px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
</div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Turkey and Saudi Arabia are joined in a currency decline for differing reasons. Saudi Arabia currency is in trouble over a combination of falling oil prices and trouble with the Chinese currency while the Turkish Lira is really under assault by a lack of confidence and a softening economy. There is an indirect relationship between the two economies, Turkey is an importer of energy and is wholly dependent on the cost of imported energy to meet its needs thus a low oil price keeps Turkey’s economy from bottoming out. There are two basic reason why the Turkish economy is facing difficulty, the primary one being investor capital is leaving for more profitable and more secure post-recession destinations and all the BRICS will be affected and the second reason is with a declining economy the effects of political corruption, crony capitalism and misspend money on relatively needless building projects begin to take their toll on the economy even though much of the building had Keynes affect before. The Turkish economy has been reasonable well managed despite the corruption and waste and Turkey has secured many free trade agreements with now declining economies but the long term heath of Turkey seems very sound. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is finding itself straightjacketed from intervention by low foreign currency reserves. High imports and high business debt in dollars and euros make currency devaluations painful and less likely to be offset by exports, the economy likely to shrink in the short term. One real terrible problem is Turkish confidence, the general public is sensing all is not right with the economy and moving away from the Lira. Turkish banks are starting to see a significant drive to hedge with the US Dollar. While a very smart move by a public that is very well seasoned at hedging bets on currency in the inflation days, it is also a very Greece like lack of confidence in the local currency and this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, chief risk officer at Ebury, said: “We think the lira is one of the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.” as reported by the Financial Times in April but the current inability to form a coalition government and going to snap elections and the renewed terror war with the PKK are also harming Turkish confidence in its currency.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Saudi Arabia faces its own conundrum, as the Kingdom needs to keep oil prices low when failing to do so would boost both the Iranian and Russian economies at the worst possible moment for doing so and would undermine all of Saudi Arabia’s diplomacy and strengthen Iran’s hand in Yemen. Having two problems at one is going to be a strain on the Saudi economy, it has a significant sovereign fund to weather low oil prices but add weakening investments in China and weaker Chinese demand of petroleum and the lack of impact on US fracking and Saudi Arabia could be looking at five or more years of a sluggish economy. While the Saudis could probably weather this, the other Gulf States might not so House of Saud may find itself in a game of economic Chicken with Iran alongside an ongoing war with Iranian proxies.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Meanwhile the Turkish Lira is being squeezed by demand for other currencies and more ominously an increasing budget deficit. The Lira has always been mismanaged in terms of deficit spending but the cost of borrowing is going to increase and low energy prices will not make up the difference and those energy prices are already being negated by a declining Lira and if Saudi Arabia can’t or won’t keep those prices low then the Lira could find itself in a free fall. Fortunately there is an oil glut and weakening demand from China but Turkey may quickly find it can’t benefit from low energy prices. Worse still for the Lira is that former PM Erdogan now President Erdogan has a pattern of politicizing interest rates, pushing for a lower rates which increases inflationary pressure which increases capital and investor flight from the Turkish economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey are suffering from a lack of political direction. Saudi Arabia needs to commit to a long term anti-Tehran strategy that creates allies and gives a realistic picture of what will be required of Gulf States and citizens to secure their long term futures. Turkey needs to establish a healthy political direction that ends the possibility of both one man rule and one party rule because the political bottom line for those ruling the country right now isn’t always going to dovetail with the economic bottom line for citizens. Saudi Arabia has taken necessary but costly steps that are having negative effects on its economy while Turkey’s flaws have finally begun to outpace what it has been doing right. Neither are facing doom but both need to be able to make good long term choices. Saudi Arabia may not have a long term strategy that would survive domestic unrest and Turkey is farther away from being an inclusive society that can rally secularists, religiously conservative Muslims, Alevis and Kurds than it has been in decades. All of these problem are in the context of a larger problem of the Chinese economy slowing down and investment capital leaving BRICS but Turkey is well positioned for a soft landing if it gets its political house not just in order but in a good order and the Saudis have the capital to outlast an economic drought but need the ability to get the other Gulf States and their own public to buy into it. The Middle East is in a watershed moment and how well Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia and Turkey manage their economies will indicate how stable their politics are and how volatile the next few years will be regionally. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Originally published in the Jerusalem Post in the <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Blogs/Middle-East-by-Midwest/Politics-of-the-Turkish-Lira-and-Saudi-Riyal-412845" target="_blank">Middle East by Midwest</a> blog</div>
</div>
dubeityhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00282599135200626095noreply@blogger.com0