Turkish Elections: Erdogan unexpectedly finds himself the President of all Turkey

Won Is No Longer A Lonely Number For The AKP

Erdogan’s AKP has lost its stranglehold on Turkey and is seemingly forced into a coalition government. This last election seemed like one that would determine the fate of Turkey, Soner Cagaptay in the New York Times declared “the future will be liberal” and one wonders if the Turkish Press will suddenly find itself outside of jail. Last night was a heady evening for the HDP which can be credited as the minority driven socialist party that saved a democracy from an encroaching dictatorship.  The AK party received 41% of the vote and while that is not enough to rule without a coalition it is enough to frustrate any coalition and force new elections but that may not happen. None of the potential partners for the AKP show any interest in joining a coalition with AKP but with the real possibility that party leadership will now be investigated for widespread corruption, abuses of power by the party against the Military and abuses of power directly by Erdogan as both PM and President the AKP may be willing to trade much of its power to avoid an investigation. The AKP is seeking to form a coalition with the MHP, what AKP would have to trade for such a coalition remains to be seen.  The real winner of the election is the Kurdish HDP party led by the very charismatic Selahattin Demirtas which won more than the 10% vote threshold to be in parliament and may have an eventual king maker role. As the celebrations end, Turkey has some serious problems of governance before it.

Kurdish Socialist Party Saves Turkish Democracy For Now

The HDP can enjoy the irony that a Kurdish pro PKK party (The Séin Fein of Turkey) has managed to become a socialist, multi-ethnic party that rescued Turkish democracy and while many Turks defected to the HDP from Hizmet and the AKP, no one yet knows how much of the protest vote can be converted into long term support for the HDP. Kurds themselves while being very pro-Kurdish are frequently socially and religiously more conservative than many Turks and may find an AKP like party a better fit if the HDP is determined to be pro-Turkish. Turkey does not yet seem ready to redefine the state as a homeland of both Turks and Kurds in the way Canada is English and French or Switzerland is German and French. Without Turkey willing to confederate its national identity, the Kurds of Southeastern Turkey are likely to find autonomy and unity with Kurdistan very attractive. Especially since many Kurds feel Turkey has sided with ISIS at Kurdish expense in Kobani. The long term fortunes of the Turkish Kurds may well be their eventual unity with Kurds in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey and such a state may eventually be an attractive buffer between Turkey and the Arab Middle East. Since what is perhaps the most xenophobic nation in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, now seems ready to back such a change, the possibility of improving the map in the Middle East for the Kurds may become increasingly realistic.  The CHP and MHP parties are against Kurdish rights and with widespread belief the AKP went too far by simply negotiating with the HDP but now that the Kurds are in parliament and the CHP may need the HDP these hardline positions could soften. MHP is an ultra-nationalist party and flexibility on Kurdish issues and rights seems very unlikely. Any non AKP coalition depends on the CHP, HDP and MHP finding enough common ground to govern.

Davatoglu's "Mission Accomplished!"

While Davatoglu fiddles with declaring victory for the AKP, the party burns. One can expect fracturing and infighting in the AKP as people blame Davatoglu for being a yes man to Erdogan and blame Erdogan for undermining the party as President and the generally disaffected begin to separate themselves from party discipline. This may also be the moment for former President Gul to break away from the party and found his own and split the AKP. So far he has responsibly stated that a coalition government is necessary and preferable to new elections.  He has turned down offers to rejoin the AKP and he was steered away from being PM by the maneuvering of Erdogan because Erdogan needed a weaker PM to nominally run the party Erdogan is supposed to be resigned from.  A party split would permanently change Turkish politics for the better as a more moderate version of the AKP could help denude Erdogan’s power permanently but also keep religious rights in the national dialog without undermining secularism and democracy.  New elections with a surprise party split within the AKP might create the best possible long term conditions for successful Turkish democracy. Two Islamist parties would allow the government to go after corruption under Erdogan and keep a party that represents conservative Muslims in Turkish politics.

A Great Coalition Would Require An AKP Breakup

The immediate short term question is can the CHP, MHP and HDP find enough common ground to form a narrow coalition that can adequately deal with the Turkish Economy and restore democratic rule of law while avoiding issues that would bring down the government which would mean tabling Kurdish rights for now.  All of the parties seem to have ruled out joining a coalition government with the AKP but that may be just a hard bargaining position for the CHP. Meanwhile, Erdogan’s AKP will treat democracy like a slot machine and do all it can to force people to pull the lever again in new elections after doing all it can to poison coalition politics. Turkey is in for a period of political instability and I have to wonder if the same Turks who so easily voted for Erdogan in the past will remain committed to democracy once democracy gets messy.  That question gets the heart of what this election really means -- has the Turkish public learned to value democracy or have they only tired of Erdogan?  This election in many ways is a very sober yes vote for democracy and a vote of confidence in all Turks including Kurds but the next government will be the test of that self confidence.  The CHP and the HDP will have to find a way to bring religiously conservative Turks from the Black Sea region into their parties so these hard core AKP supporters feel they are not the losers in this election. A break up of the AK party would even be more reassuring as it would more easily guarantee the participation of religious people in any government.